Hillary for VP or not for VP, that is the question on many people's minds. The latest Clinton party line on the matter goes something like this:
I personally would like to see Barack Obama pick her as his VP but it's not my decision, it's not Hillary Clinton's decision, it's Barack Obama's decision to make.
In other words, advocacy without pressure.
Interestingly, after Hillary Clinton's speech on Saturday, even a prominent Obama supporter has jumped on board:
The Rev. Jesse Jackson said today that Sen. Hillary Clinton has made "a powerful case" for her candidacy for vice president. [...]"As he surveys the field, it must be someone who is compatible with him philosophically, someone who is loyal to his agenda and someone who brings a constituency that matters and the capacity to become the next president, as the Constitution requires should disaster strike," Jackson said, and Clinton meets those requirements. "She may not be the only one who does, but she certainly does.
"She starts with 18 million votes," he said. "She starts having gained a following among Latinos and she has substantial support among African Americans. ... Women will be looking to her place in the scheme of things."
That is pretty much the crux of the "for" argument. As the latest AP/Yahoo poll found:
...the New York senator is viewed significantly more favorably than Obama by many white Democrats, Hispanics and Catholics. She carried all those groups decisively against Obama in this year's Democratic primaries, exit polls of voters showed. [...]Clinton does 23 points better than Obama against McCain among Hispanics, 18 points better with Catholics and 14 points better with elderly whites. Obama is far stronger among blacks, the young and college graduates.
But there is a fairly compelling argument against the idea as well, which is part philosophical -- as Chris Cilizza puts it: "It runs directly counter to Obama's central message (i.e. 'change only comes by sending new people to Washington')" -- and part related to the perceived baggage Clinton would bring to the ticket.
Again, from the AP/Yahoo poll:
A substantial 32 percent of independents strongly dislike Clinton, 10 points more than say so about Obama, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll. Independents, a group that both Obama and McCain won during their party primaries this year, comprised a quarter of voters in the 2004 election and have been closely contested in every presidential election since 1992.In addition, 67 percent of Republicans have very unfavorable views of Clinton, 24 percentage points more than feel that way about Obama. Among conservatives the spread is similar -- 58 percent say they feel very negatively about her, 18 points more than say so about Obama.
But there are also compelling theories that should mute some of this concern. First of all, there is the proposition that by the time the Republicans are done with him, Barack Obama just may be as polarizing a figure as Hillary Clinton is. As Republican pollster Whit Ayres says:
"Obama is plenty energizing enough for Republicans and conservatives," he said.
And as for the ever so important independents, Chris Bowers makes the case that appealing to them is secondary to appealing to Democrats:
From 2004 to 2006, Democrats actually made more gains among self-identified Democrats than they made among self-identified Independents. Now, in 2008, because partisan self-identification has shifted starkly in favor of Democrats, Barack Obama has much more to gain for self-identified Democrats than he has from self-identified Republicans and Independents combined.
Ultimately, I think the case for Hillary is less about mending fences (I actually trust that most Hillary supporters will get behind Barack once she begins to expand on the strong endorsement she gave him on Saturday around the country) than increasing the chances of winning in November -- that should be Barack Obama's number one mission with his VP choice and my personal feeling is that Clinton would be a net plus in that regard. Indeed, the latest CNN poll shows an Obama/Clinton ticket beating McCain/Romney by 6, while Obama on his own beats McCain only by 3. But Clinton supporters should make peace with the likelihood that she will not be on the ticket. For one thing, Obama can win without Clinton but also, really, wouldn't her time be perhaps better spent in another more useful role such as in Obama's cabinet or even as one of the key implementers of the Obama agenda in the senate?
|
|
|
Permalink :: 129 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
