Couldn't help but thinking the southward spread of blue on the electoral map is the Dem version of trickle down theory.  We'll trickle that blue paint right down to FL. ;)

Quick ... someone get Jerome a fainting couch    ;-)

Done.

It will be very high this year.

Look at the numbers from CNN's Exit Polls (pdf) where 18-29 year old turnout was as high as 22 percent of the turnout from the Dems...

I agree 15 percent might be a little high when you factor in the Republicans, but not THAT high.

For all the media (and MyDD diarist) concerns about PUMA, we have to remember -- many of the GOP rank and file NEVER liked McCain.

I guess in order to get a unity bounce you need to be a candidate. As Bay Buchanan aptly put it:

"... in reality there is only one candidate.  Barack Obama.  In November he will win or he will lose. John McCain is relevant only in so far as he is not Barack Obama."

In other words McCain is the default. And a default doesn't get a unity bounce, seemingly.

"I realize this is probably pretty close to Obama's high-water mark.  You know, unity bounce and all that."

Maybe woyuld be a better choice of word thanprobably.

Obama's stock has been consistently undervalued by too many.

Seriously?  Where is McCain going to start cutting into Obama's numbers?  Clinton voters are still in the process of moving to the nominee and that will continue through the convention.  McCain has to act like Bush to try to win over the 30% of numbskulls who still like him and make up a big chunk of the GOP base.  As he does that, Obama just keeps picking up more independents.

You're confused maybe from the spin during the primaries.  The Clinton campaign used the timing of the races in Appalachia to create an appearance of a trend away from Obama.  It made sense to do that because she was trying to sell the idea to the supers that she was a stronger candidate.  But the trend from the Iowa campaiagn on was always towards Obama.  He had to overcome huge double digit deficits almost everywhere to win the nomination.  

The more the electorate actually gets to know Obama, the better he tends to do.  He won Iowa because it was a year long campaign in front of a small group of voters.  It proved a microcosm of how the whole primary race would go and there is little indication beyond Jerome's apparent wishful thinking that the trend will continue through the general election.  

If you look at the internals, McCain is actually doing quite well with Republicans- often with about 87 voting for him, and 7 percent voting for Obama (for Democrats and Obama, its often about 82% loyal, and about 13% defecting to McCain).

One of the reasons is that there are simply less Republicans (and more Democrats) than there were in 2004.  

Good stuff, because it means that Obama has room to grow.

So you're saying that all of the major polling outfits do push polls because their results don't agree with your preconceived notions about racial tensions?  Do you have any evidence for that or is it just that you want to believe?  The fact that you care what Larry "Please let me try another lie detector test and maybe I'll pass this one" Sinclair has to say raises suspicions for me.

Why would a respected polling company do a push poll six months in advance and destroy any credibility they have before the primary?

How about that Hispanic voters liked Clinton instead of that they hate black people?

As you are a Nader supporter, I understand your legitimate concern that those polls do not even mention your candidate. I respect your concern.
I understand that an Obama victory would be yet another major personal disappointment for you at this stage.

Perhaps a shift in viewpoint could help. For instance, if you could somehow bring yourself to consider that an Obama victory might be a positive thing, then life would probably seem brighter...

I don't think you understand what a push poll is.

Ha ha ha, BARB. Good try.

Why is it so hard to believe that Latinos would love Hillary, but lacking her as an option, would go instead to Obama instead of to the party that wants to build a wall around the U.S. and send illegal immigrants to jail?

who won't vote for a black man.

Oh, except that in New Mexico, where we have the highest percentage of registered Hispanic voters of any state in the nation, Obama is tied or nine points ahead of McCain, depending on if you believe SurveyUSA or Rasmussen's polling.

And our Hispanic governor (Richardson) backed Obama.  And rank and file Hispanic Democrats are behind Obama.  I really wish this whole "brown people are racist!" meme would die since there is NO evidence for it.  At all.

As a Latino I can tell you that Latinos were mobalized a few years back over immigration policy proposed by Republicans. That has never been forgotten. Any good will the GOP had with the Latino community was demolished.

I attended the first such immigration march in Chicago ('06?). Besides the main message of immigrant rights and the positive aspects that immigrants play in this nation of ours, Democratic institutions and leaders were readily deployed to assist the marchers (and their message).

Not a single Republican.

If you truly believe that Latinos will not readily vote for a black candidate you're wrong. In fact, the assertion "whites are very reluctant to support a black candidate" would be closer to the truth yet still dishonest.