Clinton's Michigan dilemma

by thezzyzx, Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:33:57 PM EST

I'm not surprised that Clinton rejected the 69-59 proposal.  If she's still trying to win, that doesn't help her in the slightest.  Obama would gladly sacrifice 10 net delegates in order to take that problem off the table, take away an argument for the general, and look statesmanlike at the same time by willing to take on a handicap that he wouldn't be compelled to do so.  For Clinton, though, it wouldn't help her with her delegate issues.  It would make Obama look stronger with superdelegates without actually changing things in her favor.

So accepting a compromise like that isn't going to work for her. There's one additional problem though.  She can't leave the vague situation out there either.  Why not?  Scheduling.

May 20 is going to be an important date.  Obama will clinch the lead in pledged delegates that day and a large chunk of supers is likely to commit after that.  It's quite possible that he'll hit 2025 right around there.  And that's where Clinton has a problem.

Suppose Obama and Clinton don't come to a deal.  At that point 2025 is the magic number.  Obama will be called the presumptive nominee, people will pivot to the general election, and causal observers will say that it's over.  The rules committee isn't going to meet for another 11 days.  

After a week of Obama being called the nominee, does anyone believe that the committee is going to flip the result - and for Clinton to really stand a chance, nothing short of full seating of Michigan with Obama getting few if any of the uncommitted delegates will do - and take the nomination away from Obama?  

Getting Michigan seated as is is her only remaining play, but the already incredibly unlikely chances of having that happen are reduced by the timing.

Clinton can't take a compromise but she also can't let it wait until the end of the month.  This is why the math is so bleak for her.




Tags: Michigan, primary (all tags)

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Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (2.00 / 2)

she doesn't care about the delegates, she wants the pop vote and that Obama will never agree too.

thus the number will stay at 2,025 untill she drops and then Obama can seat MI and FL without her blocking it.


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:35:27 PM EST

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (none / 0)

What is there to "agree to" on the popular vote?  There's no official popular vote total for numerous reasons that we've all heard.

Clinton will count the votes in MI for herself and none for Obama if that's what it takes to make an argument, no matter what the RBC says -- she's already done it.


by Rorgg on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:27:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Her rejection of the MI compromise (2.00 / 2)

will get a cold reception among superdelegates.  She's probably sealed her fate either way.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:39:03 PM EST

Re: Her rejection of the MI compromise (none / 0)

He is going to lose 45% of Democratic votes in November!


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:42:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her rejection of the MI compromise (none / 0)

No just something like 20-25%


by DTaylor on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:45:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You guys crack me up. (2.00 / 1)

Or something like that.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guys crack me up. (1.00 / 3)

he would lose 25% due to defections from Hillary supporters and 20% from his own supporters when they realize who he is!

25+20=45   LMAOF


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh (2.00 / 2)

The defections number is WAAAAAY too high, most Hillary supporters are Democrats, and most Democrats are too smart to hand the presidency to McCain.

Frankly, I think his support increases by far more than 20% once undecideds, Independents, etc. realize who he is and realize that he will make a great president and accomplish great things.

Your negative view of this Democrat is disappointing.


by Slim Tyranny on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Her rejection of the MI compromise (2.00 / 2)

I'd be amazed if 20-25% of democrats know this is even happening. Or care.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Perhaps 20-25% of the (none / 0)

extreme fringe Clinton supporters who are currently commenting here on MyDesperateDelusion.  But I wouldn't bet even on that.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:33:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Time to hang it up, Hillary (2.00 / 1)

The defections are going to be ramping up, there's nothing but hurt and embarrassment ahead if she continues.


by SunWolf78 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:43:06 PM EST

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (2.00 / 2)

Has Clinton ever explained why she signed the agreement that the Michigan vote would not count?  


by Piuma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:43:41 PM EST

Didn't count. (2.00 / 2)

She had her fingers crossed.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (2.00 / 2)

Here's what she signed:


WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I, [Name], Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.

Does her signature mean nothing?  Apparently so, since we are now witnessing by her statements that clearly does not honor "the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country".


by Piuma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (none / 0)

And she didn't violate the agreement.


by Michael Begala on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:04:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (2.00 / 2)

Keeping your name on the ballot is participating in the contest.  As a result she violated her pledge.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:16:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, you're right. (none / 0)

"Participate" could be interpreted in a few ways, and she chose to stay on the ballot, which is fine.

But all the other candidates took a different interpretation, which was also legitimate.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, you're right. (none / 0)

Chris Dodd and Kucinich stayed on as well.

Kucinich actively campaigned.


by Michael Begala on Fri May 09, 2008 at 01:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did you know? (2.00 / 1)

The RNC stripped both MI and FL of 50% of their delegates for going early.  And they're sticking by that.

Another point: Senator Clinton doesn't have to agree to this.  It will be up to the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee to vote on Michigan Democrats' plan on May 31.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:48:14 PM EST

Re: Did you know? (none / 0)

How can he declare victory before the ruling?


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How? (2.00 / 1)

By saying this: "I've won!"  Yes, it's technically premature.  But he's on solid ground.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

Its is a Victory with an asterisk. If he gets the nomination without FL and MI it will be as illegitimate as Bush's selection by Supreme court in 2000.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:14:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

Good thing he's agreed to seat MI, then.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

He only agreed to seat but not count the vote.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

His strategy is not to give her the vote count. He wants her to lose popular vote. He wants to humiliate Hillary and her supporters. Remember the way he humiliated her in New Hampshire debate.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

How dare he humiliate Clinton by having the nerve to win elections and follow the rules of the contest!  Shame on you Barack Obama!


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How? (none / 0)

Firstly: There is no official metric of "vote count" that he can give or deny. The only official thing in the Democratic primaries is the delegates.

Secondly: even with the votes included in whatever convoluted "popular vote" metric you want to construct, she still falls short.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Humiliated. (none / 0)

"He wants to humiliate Hillary and her supporters."

I thought he wanted to be President.  Not everything should be taken personally.


by McNasty on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:37:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did you know? (2.00 / 2)

Of course she doesn't have to agree to this, but does anyone really think that the committee on 5/31 is going to flip the nomination that already has been won under the old rules?  If Obama gets to 2025 before they meet, there's no way any politician is going to be willing to change that, especially by using Michigan.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Catch-22 (2.00 / 3)

When Obama reaches the finish line, he'll get a memo from Hillary saying the finish line has been moved.


I trust Senator Obama.
by GFORD on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Typo in your post. (none / 0)

You wrote, "the math."  In Obamese, both words are capitalized.  It should read, "The Math."  Make a note of it.


Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!
by Beltway Dem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 03:53:41 PM EST

Re: Clinton's Michigan dilemma (none / 0)

Man, that's hilarious.  She isn't willing to comprimise on MI, even after she said it wouldn't count for anything?  Penn must still be advising her.  She should take what she can get out of MI.  Anywho, when the FEC reports for her campaign show MASSIVE debt, and staggering personal loans, I don't think any one will give her anymore money, even if she wins WV by 40 points.


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 04:27:57 PM EST


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