MyDD :: May 28, 2004 Electoral map

May 28, 2004 Electoral map

by thezzyzx, Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:36:47 PM EST

Andrew Sullivan put up this map from May of 2004:

This is why electability arguments can only go so far. Look at that map and wonder how that happened. Ohio AND Florida should have gone to Kerry, let alone states like Nevada.

Polls in May can be used to create a valid argument, but even if you ignore reasons why Clinton might be polling better than Obama now, Obama would have to be around 100 EVs and Clinton at 400 for them to really spook superdelegates. Remember that they're the opposite of low information voters; they've seen this process many times before.

Tags: electability, early polls (all tags)

Permalink :: 23 Comments :: Post a Comment

map (none / 0)

Thank you!

I had forgotten how far Kerry had come down by the fall.

by emptythreatsfarm on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:39:35 PM EST

Re: map (2.00 / 1)

all these electibilty arguments showcasing maps remind me of how wrong most all exit polls were this season.

the only way obama loses is by losing her supporters and the only way we guarantee that does not happen in large numbers is by pivoting from an anti hillary stance that most diaries take to just simply let it be...

Bottom line is that nothing is changing his nomination , so why bother with childish rants and diaries . If her supporters put up any on the other side- ignore it. Don't be afraid to agree w/ some of it... our candidate is not perfect as he and his wife have said it many times. Try understanding and even seeing some outrage in the Hillary supporters comments and you will win more of them over vs harding them against obama.

I loved his message of one America and have grown tired of always being partisan in politics. Now its up to us obama voters to practice what he preached..

Rise / Repeat / But for god's sake don't spin!

by aliveandkickin on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:07:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She was also supposed to sweep the nomination. (none / 0)

Barack was trailing in about 49 states last year.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:44:52 PM EST

Some troll humor ... time for a stoning? (none / 0)

Hillary wasn't even running the year before that. Top that one!

Oh, I know, Barack was in diapers when Hillary was still wearing that same pantsuit. Oops, that backfired.

by Liame on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:50:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He's losing MS today (1.00 / 2)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/mississippi/election_2 008_mississippi_presidential_election

This is part of his "must win" six, which the Boston Globe talked about yesterday.

Pathetic. In MS, Rasmussen figures 36% of the electorate will be AA, and Obama trails by six.

And wait until the good citizens of MS see the Fr. Pfleger video up at No Quarter.

by katmandu1 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:51:12 PM EST

Ridiculous (2.00 / 1)

The Globe is totally wrong on that, Mississippi is not "must win" for Obama at all. Just look at the MyDD map, which has Obama at 290 EVs without Mississippi.

by Hatch on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's losing MS today (2.00 / 1)

MS is a must win? MS? Mississippi would be an extra bonus state, not something that Obama is expecting to win.

Then again, why am I responding to someone who is gleeful about the chances of Obama having problems in November?

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's losing MS today (2.00 / 1)

i'm just going to echo what everyone else said

MS is not a must win, it's just a bonus state we have a good chance to turn blue

by Monolithic on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:05:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's losing MS today (2.00 / 1)

No Quarter's Larry Johnson is an ex-CIA guy who voted for Bush in 2000. The blog is well known for using racist language. You may want to reconsider your association with it.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He's losing MS today (none / 0)

Ah, yes, the Clintonites are now attacking a white, Catholic priest... That will go over well in PA!

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May 24, 2004 Electoral map (none / 0)

Obama icing a pipe dream?
Clinton eats his cake.

CLINTON SAFER MORE UPSIDE LESS DOWNSIDE

Clinton is safer electoral candidate with more upside?
by Liame, Thu May 29, 2008 at 10:34:52 AM EST

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/29/1034 52/725

by Liame on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:52:38 PM EST

Re: May 24, 2004 Electoral map (none / 0)

Makes you wonder about Obama now doesn't it, considering he "is" our nominee.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:15:44 PM EST

Re: May 24, 2004 Electoral map (none / 0)

And we all know what happened after May 2004. Republicans attacked and we did not respond. We took the beating. What makes you think any of our candidates will let that happen again?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:20:09 PM EST

I don't accept the swiftboat story.. (2.00 / 1)

I think that was a factor, but not as determinative as the story of 2004 makes it out to be. I think the same sex marriage initiatives had a lot to do with it along with a motivated Republican base. The lack of those is why I expect 2008 to be different.

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pew has bad numbers up for Obama (none / 0)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/050 8/10691.html

Barack Obama's favorability ratings among white women have significantly depreciated in recent months, particularly among Democrats and independents, posing an immediate obstacle for the likely Democratic nominee as he moves to shore up his party's base.

According to a new report by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, half of white women now have a negative perception of Obama.

Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.

Over the same period, Democratic white women's negative view of Obama increased from 21 to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 to 60 percent - roughly the same rate as white women overall.

by katmandu1 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:33:44 PM EST

Re: Pew has bad numbers up for Obama (2.00 / 1)

Gee, why could that possibly happen? What factor is there out there that's effecting how Obama is viewed by white women?

You know, ironically enough Clinton could have a better chance at the nomination (in a .001 is better than .00001 sort of way) if she suspended her campaign. Right now, Obama softness in the polls can be answered with, "Well wait until the party unifies." Clinton's best chance would be if she works hard for Obama over the next few months and he then looks horrible in the polls. Then she might actually have an argument for unsuspending and fighting at the convention.

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:51:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pew has bad numbers up for Obama (none / 0)

LOL it's like the argument - I am weak, please support me. In case I am still weak after your support, then you proved your point that I am really weak.

Only in America can we find such a logic.

by Sandeep on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May 24, 2004 Electoral map (2.00 / 1)

In all seriousness, it's all on Hilary. The loser in any closely contested primary contest automatically gets the massive responsibility of uniting their supporters with the winner's coalition.

Obama can't do it by himself. And if Hillary pulls that off, it'll be her greatest legacy.

Of course, she'd have to actually stop campaigning first, and that doesn't look to happen before January 2009 or so...

by Reeves on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:59:34 PM EST

wrong (1.00 / 1)

THIS is the actual electoral map as of this time in 2004, and like Obama, Kerry was LOSING. your pathetic attempt at spin has been caught. the map turned out nearly exactly like it except for New Mexico

"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States

by DiamondJay on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:06:13 PM EST

Re: wrong (none / 0)

HEY JACKASS!

I just changed the "24" in your link to a "28"

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2004/may/ma y28.html

It's the one in the diary.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wrong (none / 0)

Forgive the name-calling, but you just attacked someone for a factually correct assertion, calling it "spin."

I apologize for the harsh reply, but that really pissed me off.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]