SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42

With all of the arguments here about how Obama is doomed due to polls, this new one is pretty important.   It shows that even now with a divided Democratic party, Obama is pretty close to winning.

Take the MyDD map on the front page and flip VA.  That gets Obama to 266.  Obama would then just have to flip MI or OH or NH or NV or WI to have a victory.  That seems quite feasible.  

As for the difference in Obama's polling vs. Clinton's poll numbers, there's one problem in comparing them.  The question assumes that Clinton already has the nomination, what I'm calling the magic wand theory.  What it doesn't factor in is the way that Clinton would have to achieve it; it would be something ugly involving a convention floor fight and some rule committee votes.

I think there's a double skewing in the polls in that Obama will do better when (or if I suppose) he gets the nomination because the party will unite around the eventual nominee.  Clinton, on the other hand, would actually do worse upon being selected because of the ugliness required.  Anyway, hopefully this poll will start to calm some people down.



Display:


Re: SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42 (2.00 / 1)

See, Obama can't win swing.... wait... VA is a swing state now, and he's winning?


by mattw on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:14:14 PM EST

Re: SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42 (2.00 / 1)

As the GE gets in full force, this number will just go up.  McCain is looking too old, same old talking points, no new policies, and mundane charisma.  What kind of leader is that?

I can't wait for the debates!


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:14:59 PM EST

Re: SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42 (2.00 / 2)

There's a decent tech presence in VA. I used to go consult in the herndon/reston area. Among those people, the fact that Obama carries a Blackberry and McCain carries a chisel and a block of stone is an advantage for Democrats.


by mattw on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:20:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42 (2.00 / 1)

This is great news.  At this point, while I respect the rights of Clinton and her supporters to continue to make the case for her long-shot nomination, I think all positive polls for Obama against McCain are good news for the party and its agenda.


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:15:33 PM EST

even better.... (2.00 / 2)

Yes, but before we get to excited, we have to acknowledge that SUSA hasn't done that well in the South.

They have typically understated Obama's support!


by emptythreatsfarm on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:17:39 PM EST

Re: SUSA VA - Obama 49/McCain 42 (2.00 / 1)

But... but... but... she's more electable, somehow!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:18:40 PM EST

Only OH & FL matter.... (2.00 / 1)

those have been "the" swing states the past two elections, so it therefore follows that they will be  "the" swing states now and forevermore.


by rebop on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:20:30 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.